NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 9.25 | 14.73 | -5.50 |
| Roosters | 8.89 | 3.08 | 5.80 |
| Storm | 6.60 | 6.15 | 0.40 |
| Sharks | 3.33 | 2.94 | 0.40 |
| Broncos | 3.30 | 9.07 | -5.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.39 | -0.48 | 1.90 |
| Cowboys | 0.57 | 2.47 | -1.90 |
| Warriors | -1.87 | -0.07 | -1.80 |
| Knights | -2.42 | 1.84 | -4.30 |
| Bulldogs | -2.43 | -13.35 | 10.90 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.66 | 0.87 | -3.50 |
| Dolphins | -2.81 | -7.09 | 4.30 |
| Dragons | -3.66 | -6.93 | 3.30 |
| Eels | -5.41 | 0.14 | -5.50 |
| Titans | -5.91 | -7.89 | 2.00 |
| Raiders | -6.72 | -4.31 | -2.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.43 | -13.15 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jun 28 | 15 – 14 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 29 | 32 – 16 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Knights vs. Eels | Jun 29 | 34 – 26 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Raiders | Jun 29 | 16 – 6 | 17.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Dolphins | Jun 30 | 26 – 6 | -0.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Jun 30 | 6 – 16 | 14.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 30 | 40 – 6 | 21.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 04 | Eels | 0.20 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Titans | Jul 05 | Sharks | 9.20 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Jul 05 | Panthers | -3.00 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | Jul 06 | Bulldogs | 6.40 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Jul 06 | Storm | -15.00 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 06 | Cowboys | 2.20 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Jul 07 | Roosters | 15.60 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 07 | Knights | -1.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »