Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 13.57 | 8.76 | 4.80 |
| Toulon | 5.86 | 5.32 | 0.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.37 | 3.96 | 1.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 1.22 | 4.85 | -3.60 |
| Clermont | 1.19 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | 0.93 | -0.96 | 1.90 |
| Racing 92 | 0.64 | 2.75 | -2.10 |
| Bayonne | 0.48 | -1.69 | 2.20 |
| Lyon | 0.47 | -0.18 | 0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.07 | -0.09 | 0.00 |
| Section Paloise | -0.65 | 1.38 | -2.00 |
| Stade Francais | -2.05 | 1.86 | -3.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.55 | -0.66 | -2.90 |
| Vannes | -7.69 | -10.00 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 154 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Section Paloise | Apr 27 | 27 – 22 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais | Apr 27 | 10 – 21 | 13.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Lyon | Apr 27 | 39 – 31 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 27 | 19 – 13 | 10.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 27 | 52 – 6 | 18.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Toulon | Apr 27 | 29 – 19 | -7.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Apr 28 | 49 – 24 | 8.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont | May 11 | Castres Olympique | 5.60 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Section Paloise | May 11 | Lyon | 7.40 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Bayonne | May 11 | Racing 92 | 6.80 |
| 4 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | May 11 | Stade Toulousain | -1.30 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais | May 11 | USA Perpignan | 5.30 |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais | May 11 | Stade Rochelais | -1.60 |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 12 | Montpellier | 1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »