NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.39 | 9.29 | 0.10 |
| Panthers | 5.79 | 8.50 | -2.70 |
| Sharks | 4.90 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
| Roosters | 3.99 | 7.44 | -3.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.48 | 2.97 | 0.50 |
| Cowboys | 3.46 | 4.11 | -0.70 |
| Bulldogs | 2.76 | 0.07 | 2.70 |
| Broncos | 1.24 | -1.82 | 3.10 |
| Raiders | -0.40 | -3.61 | 3.20 |
| Dolphins | -0.83 | -1.96 | 1.10 |
| Warriors | -1.34 | -1.68 | 0.30 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.71 | -4.35 | 0.60 |
| Dragons | -3.75 | -4.55 | 0.80 |
| Knights | -3.82 | -0.05 | -3.80 |
| Eels | -6.47 | -3.02 | -3.50 |
| Titans | -6.99 | -5.50 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.71 | -10.97 | 3.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Apr 24 | 42 – 18 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Apr 25 | 46 – 18 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Knights | Apr 25 | 26 – 12 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 24 – 16 | 17.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 26 | 50 – 18 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 26 | 10 – 26 | 7.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Dolphins | Apr 27 | 40 – 28 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | 20 – 18 | -10.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Eels | May 02 | Sharks | 11.40 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Dolphins | May 02 | Roosters | 1.80 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | May 03 | Rabbitohs | 0.10 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | May 03 | Cowboys | -4.80 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | May 03 | Dragons | -4.00 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | May 04 | Bulldogs | -9.70 |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Broncos | May 04 | Panthers | 1.50 |
| 8 | Storm vs. Raiders | May 04 | Storm | 9.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »