AFL Predictions for Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 21.15 | 5.39 | 15.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.88 | 22.65 | -4.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 17.27 | 18.20 | -0.90 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.90 | 21.95 | -6.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 14.66 | 15.04 | -0.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 10.22 | 2.69 | 7.50 |
| GWS Giants | 8.73 | 9.08 | -0.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 6.69 | 12.60 | -5.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.82 | 5.99 | -0.20 |
| Carlton Blues | 5.73 | 5.01 | 0.70 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 2.29 | 7.63 | -5.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 0.51 | -6.41 | 6.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.42 | 0.89 | -4.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -7.88 | -0.21 | -7.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -11.02 | -10.15 | -0.90 |
| Richmond Tigers | -30.84 | -31.00 | 0.20 |
| North Melbourne | -32.14 | -37.08 | 4.90 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.97 | -34.67 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 24 | 83 – 63 | 23.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 25 | 107 – 66 | 29.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 25 | 85 – 67 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 26 | 73 – 118 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne | Apr 26 | 97 – 88 | 51.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 26 | 81 – 113 | 8.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 27 | 117 – 79 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 27 | 94 – 76 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 9 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 27 | 124 – 74 | 63.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | May 01 | Essendon Bombers | 21.10 |
| 2 | St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 02 | St Kilda Saints | 1.80 |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 03 | Western Bulldogs | 26.00 |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues | May 03 | Adelaide Crows | 15.50 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | May 03 | Collingwood | 17.50 |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons | May 03 | Melbourne Demons | -15.10 |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | May 04 | Sydney Swans | 2.00 |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers | May 04 | Hawthorn Hawks | 46.70 |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 04 | Brisbane Lions | 21.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »