Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.76 | 11.43 | 0.30 |
| Blues | 11.42 | 14.92 | -3.50 |
| Crusaders | 9.99 | 8.99 | 1.00 |
| Hurricanes | 8.72 | 10.97 | -2.30 |
| Brumbies | 5.89 | 6.19 | -0.30 |
| Reds | 1.27 | 1.35 | -0.10 |
| Highlanders | -2.39 | -2.50 | 0.10 |
| Western Force | -4.56 | -6.41 | 1.90 |
| Waratahs | -5.83 | -5.17 | -0.70 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.68 | -7.98 | 0.30 |
| Moana Pasifika | -8.04 | -11.25 | 3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies | Apr 18 | 0 – 24 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Apr 18 | 25 – 22 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs | Apr 19 | 28 – 14 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Apr 19 | 46 – 10 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Hurricanes | Apr 19 | 17 – 17 | -10.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Western Force | Apr 25 | Chiefs | 20.30 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Blues | Apr 25 | Blues | -6.20 |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua | Apr 26 | Moana Pasifika | 3.60 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Apr 26 | Crusaders | -8.90 |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Apr 26 | Brumbies | 1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »