Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 11.50 | 14.92 | -3.40 |
| Chiefs | 10.99 | 11.43 | -0.40 |
| Crusaders | 9.91 | 8.99 | 0.90 |
| Hurricanes | 9.17 | 10.97 | -1.80 |
| Brumbies | 5.27 | 6.19 | -0.90 |
| Reds | 1.27 | 1.35 | -0.10 |
| Highlanders | -1.63 | -2.50 | 0.90 |
| Western Force | -5.01 | -6.41 | 1.40 |
| Waratahs | -5.27 | -5.17 | -0.10 |
| Moana Pasifika | -7.42 | -11.25 | 3.80 |
| Fijian Drua | -8.24 | -7.98 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 44 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Apr 11 | 24 – 31 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 11 | 21 – 14 | -13.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 12 | 36 – 17 | 23.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua | Apr 12 | 43 – 20 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Apr 12 | 26 – 39 | 0.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies | Apr 18 | Brumbies | -8.70 |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Apr 18 | Crusaders | 1.90 |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs | Apr 19 | Fijian Drua | 0.50 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Apr 19 | Chiefs | 16.10 |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Hurricanes | Apr 19 | Hurricanes | -10.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »