AFL Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 19.38 | 22.65 | -3.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.64 | 21.95 | -3.30 |
| Collingwood | 15.48 | 5.39 | 10.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 14.44 | 15.04 | -0.60 |
| GWS Giants | 12.62 | 9.08 | 3.50 |
| Sydney Swans | 11.35 | 12.60 | -1.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 10.39 | 18.20 | -7.80 |
| Adelaide Crows | 10.20 | 2.69 | 7.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.80 | 5.99 | -0.20 |
| St Kilda Saints | 3.48 | 0.89 | 2.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 3.19 | 7.63 | -4.40 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.97 | 5.01 | -4.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 0.24 | -6.41 | 6.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -8.44 | -10.15 | 1.70 |
| Melbourne Demons | -8.49 | -0.21 | -8.30 |
| North Melbourne | -31.73 | -37.08 | 5.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.70 | -31.00 | -2.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.21 | -34.67 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 10 | 100 – 119 | 11.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 11 | 109 – 78 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 12 | 89 – 141 | -28.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 12 | 121 – 50 | 31.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 12 | 97 – 118 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 12 | 57 – 96 | 6.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 13 | 47 – 108 | -35.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants | Apr 13 | 82 – 110 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 13 | 121 – 91 | -10.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 17 | Brisbane Lions | 14.90 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 18 | Carlton Blues | -32.70 |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | Essendon Bombers | -16.80 |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | Fremantle Dockers | -3.30 |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Apr 19 | Adelaide Crows | 8.60 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 19 | Gold Coast Suns | -22.90 |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 20 | Sydney Swans | 19.20 |
| 8 | Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 20 | Western Bulldogs | 6.90 |
| 9 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 21 | Hawthorn Hawks | -15.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »