AFL Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 24.22 | 21.95 | 2.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.34 | 22.65 | -4.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 17.09 | 15.04 | 2.10 |
| Collingwood | 13.76 | 5.39 | 8.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 12.46 | 18.20 | -5.70 |
| GWS Giants | 11.53 | 9.08 | 2.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 11.07 | 12.60 | -1.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 9.10 | 2.69 | 6.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | 4.51 | 0.89 | 3.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 2.66 | 5.99 | -3.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 1.92 | 5.01 | -3.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 1.74 | -6.41 | 8.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 1.29 | 7.63 | -6.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -10.73 | -0.21 | -10.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -11.08 | -10.15 | -0.90 |
| North Melbourne | -30.41 | -37.08 | 6.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -32.32 | -31.00 | -1.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -37.53 | -34.67 | -2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 03 | 63 – 46 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 04 | 85 – 46 | 38.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 05 | 91 – 90 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 05 | 90 – 118 | -41.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 05 | 52 – 117 | -25.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 06 | 132 – 51 | 56.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 06 | 72 – 89 | 12.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 06 | 97 – 81 | -1.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 10 | Adelaide Crows | 3.00 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 11 | Collingwood | 2.70 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 12 | Gold Coast Suns | -32.10 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 12 | Carlton Blues | 39.50 |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 12 | Brisbane Lions | -5.90 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 12 | Melbourne Demons | 0.40 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 13 | Fremantle Dockers | -35.00 |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants | Apr 13 | GWS Giants | -7.00 |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 13 | Hawthorn Hawks | -11.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »