Top 14 Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.71 | 8.76 | 3.90 |
| Toulon | 6.83 | 5.32 | 1.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.89 | 3.96 | 1.90 |
| Montpellier | 1.35 | -0.96 | 2.30 |
| Clermont | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 0.67 | 4.85 | -4.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.66 | -0.09 | 0.80 |
| Lyon | 0.46 | -0.18 | 0.60 |
| Bayonne | 0.37 | -1.69 | 2.10 |
| Racing 92 | 0.12 | 2.75 | -2.60 |
| Section Paloise | -0.58 | 1.38 | -2.00 |
| Stade Francais | -1.50 | 1.86 | -3.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.92 | -0.66 | -3.30 |
| Vannes | -8.03 | -10.00 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 140 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Mar 30 | 28 – 14 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Toulon | Mar 30 | 28 – 26 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 30 | 33 – 19 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Mar 30 | 38 – 32 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Mar 30 | 55 – 10 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 30 | 20 – 20 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 31 | 36 – 31 | 0.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Vannes | Apr 20 | Castres Olympique | 14.30 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Montpellier | Apr 20 | Lyon | 7.00 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Apr 20 | Section Paloise | 0.50 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 20 | Stade Toulousain | -7.10 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Apr 20 | Stade Rochelais | 6.10 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Clermont | Apr 20 | Toulon | 13.20 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 | Apr 20 | USA Perpignan | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »