Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 12.15 | 14.92 | -2.80 |
| Chiefs | 11.94 | 11.43 | 0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 9.26 | 10.97 | -1.70 |
| Crusaders | 9.13 | 8.99 | 0.10 |
| Brumbies | 4.70 | 6.19 | -1.50 |
| Reds | 1.67 | 1.35 | 0.30 |
| Highlanders | -1.80 | -2.50 | 0.70 |
| Western Force | -5.40 | -6.41 | 1.00 |
| Waratahs | -5.43 | -5.17 | -0.30 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.36 | -7.98 | 0.60 |
| Moana Pasifika | -8.34 | -11.25 | 2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 34 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Mar 28 | 57 – 12 | 16.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Mar 28 | 34 – 27 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika | Mar 29 | 29 – 45 | 23.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Reds vs. Western Force | Mar 29 | 28 – 24 | 11.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Reds | Apr 04 | Chiefs | 14.30 |
| 2 | Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs | Apr 05 | Moana Pasifika | 1.10 |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders | Apr 05 | Crusaders | -12.50 |
| 4 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | Apr 05 | Blues | 6.40 |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Highlanders | Apr 05 | Western Force | 0.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
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Hello,
Amazing work, David. I’ve been following the NRL and Super Rugby predictions since the start of the 2025 season.
Unfortunately, I’m not receiving the weekly Stats Chat email with the predictions. What do you advise as next steps?
3 weeks ago
What weekly email? I don’t do that, just check in to the website late on Tuesday and the predictions should be there. I aim to publish them on a Tuesday morning, NZ time.
That time sometimes is not possible for example if I am travelling and don’t have ready internet access.
2 weeks ago