Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 13.73 | 5.55 | 8.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.22 | 4.73 | -0.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.03 | 3.27 | 0.80 |
| Gloucester | 3.42 | -9.04 | 12.50 |
| Bristol | 3.07 | 9.58 | -6.50 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.23 | 7.50 | -5.30 |
| Harlequins | 1.63 | -2.73 | 4.40 |
| Saracens | 1.51 | 9.68 | -8.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -4.48 | 1.23 | -5.70 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -18.58 | -19.02 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 65 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 29 | 27 – 24 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Mar 30 | 47 – 28 | 18.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 30 | 17 – 15 | 25.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Mar 30 | 53 – 28 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Mar 31 | 22 – 29 | 13.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 19 | Northampton Saints | -14.30 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 20 | Bath | -11.70 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 20 | Harlequins | 3.90 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Apr 20 | Saracens | 4.60 |
| 5 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 21 | Bristol | 5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »