AFL Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 24.22 | 21.95 | 2.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.46 | 22.65 | -3.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 17.06 | 15.04 | 2.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 13.83 | 18.20 | -4.40 |
| Collingwood | 12.95 | 5.39 | 7.60 |
| GWS Giants | 9.70 | 9.08 | 0.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 8.68 | 2.69 | 6.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.31 | 12.60 | -4.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 3.39 | 7.63 | -4.20 |
| Carlton Blues | 2.73 | 5.01 | -2.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | 2.41 | 0.89 | 1.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 2.15 | -6.41 | 8.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 1.29 | 5.99 | -4.70 |
| Melbourne Demons | -10.70 | -0.21 | -10.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -11.08 | -10.15 | -0.90 |
| North Melbourne | -27.64 | -37.08 | 9.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.44 | -31.00 | -2.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.71 | -34.67 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 27 | 72 – 60 | -6.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 28 | 75 – 83 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 29 | 70 – 61 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 29 | 62 – 120 | 6.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 29 | 135 – 53 | 28.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Mar 29 | 76 – 64 | 28.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne | Mar 30 | 114 – 78 | 49.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 30 | 68 – 106 | -36.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 03 | Collingwood | 10.20 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 04 | Geelong Cats | 38.80 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 05 | Gold Coast Suns | 4.50 |
| 4 | Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 05 | Brisbane Lions | -41.90 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 05 | Sydney Swans | -25.00 |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 06 | GWS Giants | 56.40 |
| 7 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 06 | Port Adelaide Power | 12.00 |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 06 | Western Bulldogs | -1.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »