Top 14 Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.82 | 8.76 | 3.10 |
| Toulon | 6.94 | 5.32 | 1.60 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 6.16 | 3.96 | 2.20 |
| Montpellier | 1.56 | -0.96 | 2.50 |
| Stade Rochelais | 1.05 | 4.85 | -3.80 |
| Lyon | 0.78 | -0.18 | 1.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.53 | -0.09 | 0.60 |
| Clermont | 0.34 | 0.41 | -0.10 |
| Section Paloise | 0.31 | 1.38 | -1.10 |
| Bayonne | 0.01 | -1.69 | 1.70 |
| Racing 92 | -0.15 | 2.75 | -2.90 |
| Stade Francais | -1.68 | 1.86 | -3.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.08 | -0.66 | -3.40 |
| Vannes | -7.88 | -10.00 | 2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Mar 23 | 21 – 23 | 6.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Vannes | Mar 23 | 36 – 21 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Mar 23 | 40 – 38 | 7.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Bayonne | Mar 23 | 31 – 27 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 23 | 12 – 12 | 7.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 23 | 40 – 19 | 16.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 24 | 32 – 24 | 1.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Mar 30 | Bayonne | 5.30 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Toulon | Mar 30 | Toulon | -0.10 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 30 | Clermont | 5.20 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Mar 30 | Montpellier | 9.00 |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 30 | Racing 92 | 0.30 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Mar 30 | Stade Toulousain | 16.30 |
| 7 | Vannes vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 30 | Vannes | 2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »