NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.33 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 8.05 | 8.50 | -0.50 |
| Sharks | 6.11 | 5.10 | 1.00 |
| Roosters | 5.65 | 7.44 | -1.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.00 | 2.97 | 1.00 |
| Cowboys | 1.42 | 4.11 | -2.70 |
| Bulldogs | 1.09 | 0.07 | 1.00 |
| Broncos | -0.04 | -1.82 | 1.80 |
| Knights | -0.88 | -0.05 | -0.80 |
| Warriors | -1.10 | -1.68 | 0.60 |
| Raiders | -2.98 | -3.61 | 0.60 |
| Dolphins | -3.48 | -1.96 | -1.50 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.13 | -4.35 | 0.20 |
| Titans | -4.90 | -5.50 | 0.60 |
| Dragons | -5.17 | -4.55 | -0.60 |
| Eels | -5.67 | -3.02 | -2.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.30 | -10.97 | 2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Panthers | Mar 20 | 30 – 24 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Mar 21 | 14 – 6 | -4.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 21 | 26 – 16 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 22 | 27 – 12 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 22 | 18 – 30 | 9.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Titans vs. Knights | Mar 22 | 26 – 6 | -3.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 23 | 8 – 16 | -3.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Mar 23 | 40 – 12 | 8.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | Mar 27 | Panthers | -9.20 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Titans | Mar 28 | Roosters | 13.50 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Broncos | Mar 28 | Broncos | -3.40 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Storm | Mar 29 | Storm | -12.50 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 29 | Cowboys | 7.40 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Mar 29 | Sharks | 8.00 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Mar 30 | Sea Eagles | 12.70 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Mar 30 | Warriors | -3.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »