NRL Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.26 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 8.12 | 8.50 | -0.40 |
| Roosters | 6.25 | 7.44 | -1.20 |
| Sharks | 5.94 | 5.10 | 0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.13 | 2.97 | 0.20 |
| Cowboys | 1.91 | 4.11 | -2.20 |
| Bulldogs | 0.81 | 0.07 | 0.70 |
| Knights | 0.10 | -0.05 | 0.10 |
| Broncos | -0.53 | -1.82 | 1.30 |
| Warriors | -1.70 | -1.68 | -0.00 |
| Raiders | -2.11 | -3.61 | 1.50 |
| Dolphins | -2.55 | -1.96 | -0.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.97 | -4.35 | 0.40 |
| Dragons | -5.17 | -4.55 | -0.60 |
| Eels | -5.39 | -3.02 | -2.40 |
| Titans | -5.88 | -5.50 | -0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.24 | -10.97 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Dolphins | Mar 13 | 26 – 12 | 4.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 14 | 36 – 16 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Mar 14 | 32 – 38 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 15 | 24 – 25 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Mar 15 | 12 – 36 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Mar 15 | 32 – 22 | 0.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 16 | 6 – 32 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Mar 16 | 40 – 24 | 8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Panthers | Mar 20 | Storm | 5.10 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Mar 21 | Roosters | -4.40 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 21 | Broncos | 0.60 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 22 | Sharks | 12.90 |
| 5 | Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 22 | Dolphins | 9.70 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Knights | Mar 22 | Knights | -3.00 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 23 | Bulldogs | -3.20 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Mar 23 | Sea Eagles | 8.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Comments
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My prediction is on first top four teams on 2025 nrl team will be 1 Storms 2 Broncos 3 Roosters 4 Nights
Please if I’m correct I wish nrl boss recommend me to come watch live in Australia 🇦🇺.
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Thank you.
3 weeks ago
I’m interested to study the tips and know the game played in different playground and also to do my personal tips by studying yours the international prediction who study and predict the game played
3 weeks ago
I trusted that predictoin
3 weeks ago
You have the wrong games for NRL week 4
3 weeks ago
I don’t think so. Are you possibly referring to the AFL? There because of the opening round nonsense and also the delayed games, I use the terminology week rather than round, so my Week 4 games are what the AFL calls Round 3, plus the delayed Lions v Geelong game.
I have checked both the AFL and NRL draws on their official sites and don’t see any mistakes. If you can point to any specific problems I am always happy to have input of that type. I am only one person and it is hard to ensure the fixtures I have recorded are correct.
The betting sites which record fixtures and results can have mistakes, no one is perfect.
3 weeks ago