AFL Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 26.00 | 21.95 | 4.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.59 | 22.65 | -0.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 18.82 | 15.04 | 3.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 15.48 | 18.20 | -2.70 |
| Collingwood | 11.79 | 5.39 | 6.40 |
| GWS Giants | 8.43 | 9.08 | -0.70 |
| Sydney Swans | 7.23 | 12.60 | -5.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.04 | 2.69 | 3.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 2.61 | 7.63 | -5.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 2.21 | 5.99 | -3.80 |
| Carlton Blues | 1.73 | 5.01 | -3.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.94 | -0.21 | -0.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.98 | -6.41 | 4.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.46 | 0.89 | -3.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -8.76 | -10.15 | 1.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -27.72 | -31.00 | 3.30 |
| North Melbourne | -34.37 | -37.08 | 2.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -39.10 | -34.67 | -4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 11 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 13 | 82 – 69 | -36.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 14 | 111 – 85 | 37.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 15 | 147 – 69 | 20.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 15 | 82 – 86 | -4.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 15 | 136 – 45 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Mar 15 | 113 – 97 | 55.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 16 | 135 – 72 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | Mar 16 | 74 – 77 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 16 | 49 – 136 | -17.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 20 | Hawthorn Hawks | -24.30 |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | Mar 21 | Western Bulldogs | 3.70 |
| 3 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 22 | Adelaide Crows | -3.80 |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 22 | Port Adelaide Power | 41.30 |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 22 | Geelong Cats | -10.30 |
| 6 | Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 23 | Brisbane Lions | 72.70 |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 23 | Melbourne Demons | -33.40 |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 23 | Fremantle Dockers | 6.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
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Hello. In the summary it says 7/11 but it should be 9/11. I think you’re missing two tips – the one from opening round that was not carried over and another for marking Demons v Giants as incorrect when you tipped the Giants correctly last week.
2 weeks ago
Thanks for that. For some reason I am not counting the correct predictions for the games played on the first week. I will have to check my code on that.
Regarding Demons v Giants, I actually had some incorrect data regarding who was playing at home for that I think which I corrected when assessing the predictions after the games were played. I would have predicted the Demons according to my algorithm and you will see that if you compare the margins for that game before it was played and after it was played. They are different. I mark my predictions solely on the algorithm so chose to mark that as an incorrect prediction once I had corrected the input data.
6 days ago
I had some incorrect results in my data resulting in the incorrect number of successful predictions. I have corrected the latest AFL predictions to having 25 correct out of 35 games, giving 71.4% correct. I have not corrected previous AFL predictions.
Thanks once again for noticing my error.
6 days ago