NRL Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.26 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 8.71 | 8.50 | 0.20 |
| Roosters | 5.66 | 7.44 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 4.89 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.13 | 2.97 | 1.20 |
| Cowboys | 2.96 | 4.11 | -1.20 |
| Bulldogs | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| Broncos | -0.04 | -1.82 | 1.80 |
| Knights | -0.38 | -0.05 | -0.30 |
| Dolphins | -2.07 | -1.96 | -0.10 |
| Raiders | -2.59 | -3.61 | 1.00 |
| Warriors | -2.69 | -1.68 | -1.00 |
| Eels | -3.99 | -3.02 | -1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.23 | -4.35 | 0.10 |
| Dragons | -4.90 | -4.55 | -0.30 |
| Titans | -5.50 | -5.50 | -0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.64 | -10.97 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Mar 02 | 30 – 8 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | 28 – 22 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 06 | 14 – 50 | 12.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Mar 07 | 8 – 10 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins | Mar 07 | 16 – 14 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Mar 08 | 20 – 28 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Mar 08 | 42 – 12 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Eels | Mar 09 | 56 – 18 | 15.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Dolphins | Mar 13 | Knights | 4.70 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 14 | Sea Eagles | -3.30 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Mar 14 | Panthers | 6.00 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 15 | Dragons | 2.30 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Mar 15 | Cowboys | 1.10 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Mar 15 | Raiders | 0.40 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 16 | Eels | 9.60 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Mar 16 | Bulldogs | 8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can you predict and give me the score for NRL round 2 2025 and also the total match points fo all the teams which can paying this comming weekend.
1 month ago
Not a prediction I would try to make
3 weeks ago
Oh no just below half right your predictions did not work this round but may I suggest for the first game every week can u maybe put how much the team will win by as I am on a sweepstake and it will come very much handy:-)
4 weeks ago
Remember that randomness is a real thing
3 weeks ago
Maybe start putting for every 1st game every week the score the team will win by please ?
4 weeks ago
Not quite sure what you are asking, but the margin column gives the score by which the winning team wins, with the sign indicating which team is predicted to win.
If you are asking for the winning team to be listed first, no I am not doing that. Listing the home team first is pretty standard when draws are published and results are published (check official AFL, NRL, Super Rugby and betting sites like flashscore if you don’t believe me).
I have seen one rugby site where the winning team was listed first and trying to use it caused me severe mental scarring.
3 weeks ago