NRL Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.26 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 8.71 | 8.50 | 0.20 |
| Roosters | 5.66 | 7.44 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 4.89 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.13 | 2.97 | 1.20 |
| Cowboys | 2.96 | 4.11 | -1.20 |
| Bulldogs | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| Broncos | -0.04 | -1.82 | 1.80 |
| Knights | -0.38 | -0.05 | -0.30 |
| Dolphins | -2.07 | -1.96 | -0.10 |
| Raiders | -2.59 | -3.61 | 1.00 |
| Warriors | -2.69 | -1.68 | -1.00 |
| Eels | -3.99 | -3.02 | -1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.23 | -4.35 | 0.10 |
| Dragons | -4.90 | -4.55 | -0.30 |
| Titans | -5.50 | -5.50 | -0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.64 | -10.97 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Mar 02 | 30 – 8 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | 28 – 22 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 06 | 14 – 50 | 12.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Mar 07 | 8 – 10 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins | Mar 07 | 16 – 14 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Mar 08 | 20 – 28 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Mar 08 | 42 – 12 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Eels | Mar 09 | 56 – 18 | 15.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Dolphins | Mar 13 | Knights | 4.70 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 14 | Sea Eagles | -3.30 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Mar 14 | Panthers | 6.00 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 15 | Dragons | 2.30 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Mar 15 | Cowboys | 1.10 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Mar 15 | Raiders | 0.40 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 16 | Eels | 9.60 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Mar 16 | Bulldogs | 8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »