AFL Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 23.59 | 21.95 | 1.60 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.65 | 22.65 | -0.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 18.20 | 18.20 | 0.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 15.04 | 15.04 | 0.00 |
| GWS Giants | 11.68 | 9.08 | 2.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 10.97 | 12.60 | -1.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 7.63 | 7.63 | -0.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.99 | 5.99 | 0.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.00 |
| Collingwood | 2.78 | 5.39 | -2.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 2.69 | 2.69 | -0.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -6.41 | -6.41 | 0.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -10.15 | -10.15 | -0.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.00 | -31.00 | 0.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.67 | -34.67 | -0.00 |
| North Melbourne | -37.08 | -37.08 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 07 | 76 – 96 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | GWS Giants vs. Collingwood | Mar 09 | 104 – 52 | 14.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 13 | Carlton Blues | -36.00 |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 14 | Hawthorn Hawks | 33.70 |
| 3 | Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 15 | Geelong Cats | 20.00 |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 15 | Brisbane Lions | -0.70 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 15 | Collingwood | 6.20 |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Mar 15 | Western Bulldogs | 55.30 |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 16 | Adelaide Crows | 12.80 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | Mar 16 | GWS Giants | -0.90 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 16 | Gold Coast Suns | -17.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »