Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.23 | 8.76 | 3.50 |
| Toulon | 6.66 | 5.32 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.80 | 3.96 | 1.80 |
| Stade Rochelais | 1.37 | 4.85 | -3.50 |
| Montpellier | 1.24 | -0.96 | 2.20 |
| Lyon | 0.84 | -0.18 | 1.00 |
| Clermont | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| Section Paloise | 0.63 | 1.38 | -0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.20 | -0.09 | 0.30 |
| Bayonne | -0.04 | -1.69 | 1.60 |
| Racing 92 | -0.50 | 2.75 | -3.30 |
| Stade Francais | -1.66 | 1.86 | -3.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.80 | -0.66 | -3.10 |
| Vannes | -7.92 | -10.00 | 2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon vs. Toulon | Mar 02 | 27 – 20 | 1.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 02 | 21 – 17 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Mar 02 | 29 – 47 | 6.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 02 | 22 – 17 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes | Mar 02 | 63 – 21 | 24.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 02 | 17 – 29 | -2.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Clermont | Mar 03 | 31 – 18 | 6.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Mar 23 | Clermont | 6.20 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Vannes | Mar 23 | Lyon | 15.60 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Mar 23 | Section Paloise | 7.70 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Bayonne | Mar 23 | Stade Francais | 4.60 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 23 | Stade Rochelais | 7.90 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 23 | Toulon | 16.20 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 24 | Bordeaux Begles | 1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »