Top 14 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.56 | 8.76 | 2.80 |
| Toulon | 7.08 | 5.32 | 1.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.46 | 3.96 | 1.50 |
| Montpellier | 1.44 | -0.96 | 2.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 1.43 | 4.85 | -3.40 |
| Clermont | 1.07 | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| Lyon | 0.56 | -0.18 | 0.70 |
| Racing 92 | 0.38 | 2.75 | -2.40 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.10 |
| Section Paloise | -0.23 | 1.38 | -1.60 |
| Bayonne | -0.51 | -1.69 | 1.20 |
| Stade Francais | -1.71 | 1.86 | -3.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.47 | -0.66 | -2.80 |
| Vannes | -7.31 | -10.00 | 2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 119 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Feb 23 | 30 – 25 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 23 | 23 – 6 | 9.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 | Feb 23 | 21 – 26 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne | Feb 23 | 41 – 6 | 16.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Feb 23 | 24 – 6 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Montpellier | Feb 23 | 37 – 24 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont | Feb 24 | 22 – 18 | 12.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon vs. Toulon | Mar 02 | Lyon | 1.10 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 02 | Montpellier | 7.90 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Mar 02 | Racing 92 | 6.60 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 02 | Stade Francais | 3.80 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes | Mar 02 | Stade Toulousain | 24.20 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 02 | Bordeaux Begles | -2.20 |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Clermont | Mar 03 | Bayonne | 6.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »