United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games
Team Ratings for Delayed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.73 | 12.09 | 2.60 |
| Glasgow | 9.33 | 9.39 | -0.10 |
| Bulls | 7.59 | 8.83 | -1.20 |
| Munster | 5.60 | 9.28 | -3.70 |
| Lions | 3.97 | 6.73 | -2.80 |
| Stormers | 3.44 | 6.75 | -3.30 |
| Sharks | 2.81 | -2.94 | 5.80 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Ulster | 0.35 | 2.52 | -2.20 |
| Edinburgh | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Ospreys | -1.23 | -2.51 | 1.30 |
| Connacht | -1.69 | -0.76 | -0.90 |
| Benetton | -3.55 | 1.02 | -4.60 |
| Scarlets | -4.32 | -10.65 | 6.30 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -6.68 | -2.55 | -4.10 |
| Zebre | -9.49 | -16.17 | 6.70 |
| Dragons | -15.46 | -15.41 | -0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Feb 15 | 17 – 22 | 18.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Ospreys vs. Leinster | Feb 15 | 19 – 22 | -12.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 16 | 30 – 23 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 16 | 19 – 29 | 10.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Benetton vs. Ulster | Feb 16 | 34 – 19 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Munster vs. Scarlets | Feb 16 | 29 – 8 | 13.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby | Feb 16 | 24 – 19 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Glasgow | Feb 17 | 20 – 45 | -17.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Delayed Games
Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Lions | Feb 23 | Bulls | 6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »