February 12, 2025
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 15.79 | 12.09 | 3.70 |
| Bulls | 9.00 | 8.83 | 0.20 |
| Glasgow | 8.52 | 9.39 | -0.90 |
| Munster | 4.82 | 9.28 | -4.50 |
| Stormers | 3.99 | 6.75 | -2.80 |
| Lions | 3.41 | 6.73 | -3.30 |
| Edinburgh | 1.95 | 0.09 | 1.90 |
| Ulster | 1.49 | 2.52 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 1.40 | -2.94 | 4.30 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Connacht | -0.91 | -0.76 | -0.10 |
| Ospreys | -2.29 | -2.51 | 0.20 |
| Scarlets | -3.54 | -10.65 | 7.10 |
| Benetton | -4.69 | 1.02 | -5.70 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -7.46 | -2.55 | -4.90 |
| Zebre | -11.11 | -16.17 | 5.10 |
| Dragons | -14.65 | -15.41 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Feb 09 | 32 – 33 | -2.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Feb 15 | Edinburgh | 18.60 |
| 2 | Ospreys vs. Leinster | Feb 15 | Leinster | -12.60 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 16 | Lions | 1.90 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 16 | Bulls | 10.10 |
| 5 | Benetton vs. Ulster | Feb 16 | Ulster | -0.70 |
| 6 | Munster vs. Scarlets | Feb 16 | Munster | 13.90 |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby | Feb 16 | Connacht | 12.00 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Glasgow | Feb 17 | Glasgow | -17.70 |