Top 14 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.37 | 8.76 | 1.60 |
| Toulon | 6.46 | 5.32 | 1.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.97 | 3.96 | 2.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.05 | 4.85 | -1.80 |
| Montpellier | 2.34 | -0.96 | 3.30 |
| Clermont | 1.24 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
| Racing 92 | 0.66 | 2.75 | -2.10 |
| Bayonne | 0.08 | -1.69 | 1.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | -0.42 | -0.18 | -0.20 |
| Section Paloise | -0.74 | 1.38 | -2.10 |
| Stade Francais | -1.33 | 1.86 | -3.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.00 | -0.66 | -2.30 |
| Vannes | -8.62 | -10.00 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Jan 26 | 20 – 22 | 14.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 26 | 20 – 27 | 9.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | Jan 26 | 20 – 14 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Jan 26 | 27 – 17 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne | Jan 26 | 16 – 11 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Stade Francais | Jan 26 | 33 – 28 | -1.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais | Jan 27 | 45 – 26 | 8.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 16 | Bayonne | 0.60 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais | Feb 16 | Lyon | 3.90 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Toulon | Feb 16 | Montpellier | 2.40 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Vannes | Feb 16 | Racing 92 | 15.90 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Feb 16 | Stade Francais | 5.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 16 | USA Perpignan | 5.00 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 17 | Stade Toulousain | -2.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »