Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 14.06 | 5.55 | 8.50 |
| Northampton Saints | 5.92 | 7.50 | -1.60 |
| Bristol | 5.33 | 9.58 | -4.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.32 | 4.73 | -0.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 1.65 | 3.27 | -1.60 |
| Saracens | 1.42 | 9.68 | -8.30 |
| Gloucester | 0.77 | -9.04 | 9.80 |
| Harlequins | -0.24 | -2.73 | 2.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -2.16 | 1.23 | -3.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -20.32 | -19.02 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 25 | 22 – 19 | -0.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens | Jan 26 | 31 – 22 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 26 | 38 – 31 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Jan 27 | 55 – 35 | 35.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Jan 27 | 23 – 32 | -1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 22 | Sale Sharks | -18.10 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 23 | Bristol | 14.00 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 23 | Northampton Saints | 10.80 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Mar 23 | Saracens | 8.20 |
| 5 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Mar 24 | Bath | 19.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »