Top 14 Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.63 | 8.76 | 1.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 6.53 | 3.96 | 2.60 |
| Toulon | 6.05 | 5.32 | 0.70 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.49 | 4.85 | -1.40 |
| Montpellier | 2.05 | -0.96 | 3.00 |
| Racing 92 | 1.31 | 2.75 | -1.40 |
| Clermont | 1.17 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
| Bayonne | 0.15 | -1.69 | 1.80 |
| Section Paloise | -0.70 | 1.38 | -2.10 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.96 | -0.09 | -0.90 |
| Stade Francais | -0.98 | 1.86 | -2.80 |
| Lyon | -1.00 | -0.18 | -0.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.11 | -0.66 | -2.50 |
| Vannes | -8.92 | -10.00 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 98 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Jan 05 | 24 – 19 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 05 | 17 – 12 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Bayonne | Jan 05 | 42 – 10 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jan 05 | 19 – 46 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 05 | 22 – 19 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Jan 05 | 36 – 24 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Clermont | Jan 06 | 19 – 20 | -2.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Jan 26 | Bordeaux Begles | 14.00 |
| 2 | Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 26 | Racing 92 | 9.90 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | Jan 26 | Section Paloise | 6.50 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Jan 26 | Stade Toulousain | 14.90 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne | Jan 26 | USA Perpignan | 3.50 |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Stade Francais | Jan 26 | Stade Francais | -1.30 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais | Jan 27 | Toulon | 8.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »