Top 14 Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.82 | 8.76 | 2.10 |
| Toulon | 5.92 | 5.32 | 0.60 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.52 | 3.96 | 1.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.34 | 4.85 | -1.50 |
| Racing 92 | 1.47 | 2.75 | -1.30 |
| Clermont | 1.26 | 0.41 | 0.90 |
| Montpellier | 1.16 | -0.96 | 2.10 |
| Bayonne | 1.08 | -1.69 | 2.80 |
| Stade Francais | -0.03 | 1.86 | -1.90 |
| Section Paloise | -0.69 | 1.38 | -2.10 |
| Lyon | -0.80 | -0.18 | -0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.95 | -0.09 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.30 | -0.66 | -2.60 |
| Vannes | -9.06 | -10.00 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 91 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 29 | 33 – 12 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon | Dec 29 | 21 – 17 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Montpellier | Dec 29 | 18 – 22 | 7.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Vannes | Dec 29 | 48 – 24 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Dec 30 | 25 – 25 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | Dec 30 | 38 – 23 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 30 | 21 – 13 | 0.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Jan 05 | Castres Olympique | 4.60 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 05 | Lyon | 8.90 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Bayonne | Jan 05 | Montpellier | 5.50 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jan 05 | Stade Francais | 0.70 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 05 | Stade Toulousain | -0.60 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Jan 05 | Toulon | 9.90 |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Clermont | Jan 06 | Clermont | -2.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »