Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 13.54 | 5.55 | 8.00 |
| Bristol | 7.75 | 9.58 | -1.80 |
| Sale Sharks | 6.78 | 4.73 | 2.10 |
| Northampton Saints | 6.05 | 7.50 | -1.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 1.61 | 3.27 | -1.70 |
| Saracens | 1.28 | 9.68 | -8.40 |
| Gloucester | -1.14 | -9.04 | 7.90 |
| Harlequins | -1.73 | -2.73 | 1.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -2.70 | 1.23 | -3.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -20.69 | -19.02 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 45 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 28 | 0 – 38 | 18.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bath vs. Saracens | Dec 29 | 68 – 10 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 29 | 61 – 0 | 26.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 29 | 34 – 34 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Dec 30 | 22 – 15 | 4.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Jan 04 | Harlequins | -12.50 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 05 | Sale Sharks | -1.40 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 05 | Leicester Tigers | 10.80 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Bristol | Jan 05 | Saracens | 0.00 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Jan 06 | Bath | -1.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
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Excellent work, David.
1 day ago