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April 30, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 10.00 1.00 9.00
Saracens 9.25 6.82 2.40
Northampton Saints 4.14 2.66 1.50
Bath 3.31 -1.26 4.60
Leicester Tigers 2.52 6.13 -3.60
Sale Sharks 2.41 6.46 -4.10
Harlequins 1.54 1.93 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs -0.04 -0.89 0.80
Gloucester -5.48 -1.45 -4.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.90 -10.63 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 12 – 15 0.80 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 17 – 38 5.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 41 – 32 2.20 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 19 – 21 -1.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 14 – 35 -11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 Bath -14.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 Sale Sharks 5.90
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 Bristol 6.70
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 Exeter Chiefs 4.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 Northampton Saints 15.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.83 14.73 -2.90
Broncos 9.30 9.07 0.20
Storm 6.85 6.15 0.70
Roosters 6.18 3.08 3.10
Sharks 6.18 2.94 3.20
Sea Eagles 1.88 -0.48 2.40
Cowboys 0.31 2.47 -2.20
Knights -0.28 1.84 -2.10
Warriors -0.83 -0.07 -0.80
Dolphins -3.16 -7.09 3.90
Eels -3.90 0.14 -4.00
Raiders -4.49 -4.31 -0.20
Rabbitohs -6.30 0.87 -7.20
Bulldogs -6.99 -13.35 6.40
Dragons -8.17 -6.93 -1.20
Titans -9.43 -7.89 -1.50
Wests Tigers -10.99 -13.15 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 24 – 27 18.10 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 18 – 60 -7.30 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 54 – 20 13.70 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 32 – 18 8.00 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 10 – 34 -16.30 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 27 20 – 26 -8.90 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Knights Apr 28 14 – 18 0.70 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 28 0 – 40 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers May 02 Panthers -15.10
2 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 03 Sea Eagles 9.40
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 03 Broncos 6.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Bulldogs 7.00
5 Titans vs. Storm May 04 Storm -13.30
6 Cowboys vs. Dolphins May 04 Cowboys 6.50
7 Knights vs. Warriors May 05 Knights 7.60
8 Sharks vs. Dragons May 05 Sharks 17.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 18.30 10.50 7.80
Melbourne Demons 17.75 13.91 3.80
GWS Giants 15.42 12.60 2.80
Sydney Swans 14.74 9.23 5.50
Brisbane Lions 10.55 17.47 -6.90
Carlton Blues 10.07 9.73 0.30
Collingwood 9.10 14.87 -5.80
Western Bulldogs 6.90 6.04 0.90
Port Adelaide Power 6.48 8.83 -2.30
Adelaide Crows 4.85 9.56 -4.70
Fremantle Dockers 2.93 0.40 2.50
St Kilda Saints 0.15 -0.63 0.80
Gold Coast Suns -5.00 -4.60 -0.40
Essendon Bombers -8.52 -17.70 9.20
Richmond Tigers -11.96 -6.13 -5.80
Hawthorn Hawks -18.00 -11.08 -6.90
West Coast Eagles -34.38 -43.10 8.70
North Melbourne -35.21 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 42 – 85 -26.00 TRUE
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 85 – 85 -30.70 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 113 – 59 8.20 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 82 – 72 16.80 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 81 – 138 -27.10 TRUE
6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 118 – 105 -4.70 FALSE
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 95 – 71 2.00 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 112 – 75 38.80 TRUE
9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 42 – 118 -16.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 02 Port Adelaide Power -1.60
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood May 03 Carlton Blues 1.00
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 Sydney Swans 8.30
4 St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne May 04 St Kilda Saints 35.40
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats May 04 Melbourne Demons 8.40
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 04 Essendon Bombers -16.90
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 05 Fremantle Dockers -5.90
8 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 05 Western Bulldogs 33.90
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 05 Brisbane Lions 24.50

 

April 23, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.50 10.73 0.80
Munster 8.72 10.54 -1.80
Bulls 8.58 9.00 -0.40
Glasgow 8.13 4.19 3.90
Lions 5.41 -4.26 9.70
Stormers 4.97 8.93 -4.00
Ulster 2.97 7.80 -4.80
Connacht 2.31 3.17 -0.90
Sharks -0.09 0.85 -0.90
Ospreys -0.80 -7.79 7.00
Edinburgh -1.10 -2.26 1.20
Cardiff Rugby -1.84 -5.16 3.30
Benetton -3.52 -5.12 1.60
Scarlets -13.40 -2.23 -11.20
Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -17.06 -20.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Sharks Apr 20 21 – 10 12.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 19 – 17 10.10 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Dragons Apr 21 36 – 19 14.80 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 21 44 – 12 -7.60 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Munster Apr 21 22 – 27 5.50 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 21 21 – 27 12.50 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Zebre Apr 21 54 – 16 20.80 TRUE
8 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Apr 21 43 – 18 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 Sharks -9.30
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 Ulster 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 Glasgow -21.20
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 Bulls 13.40
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 Cardiff Rugby 3.30
6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 Lions 0.70
7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 Leinster -2.50
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 Connacht -13.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.33 7.24 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.93 6.40 -0.50
Toulon 5.26 3.11 2.10
Racing 92 4.21 3.42 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.03 4.07 -0.00
Stade Francais 3.16 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 0.83 -0.44 1.30
Castres Olympique 0.05 -0.39 0.40
Montpellier -0.09 2.09 -2.20
Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -1.10 2.97 -4.10
Clermont -1.11 1.47 -2.60
USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20
US Oyonnax -8.81 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 25 – 24 0.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 31 – 23 7.40 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 20 – 19 4.80 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 13 – 43 -5.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 51 – 20 4.50 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 41 – 7 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 Lyon 4.60
3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 Montpellier 7.90
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 Stade Rochelais 7.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 Stade Toulousain 9.60
6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 Castres Olympique -2.40
7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 Clermont 2.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.35 12.20 2.20
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 13.24 18.86 -5.60
Brumbies 6.31 6.52 -0.20
Reds 2.26 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Western Force -6.91 -6.15 -0.80
Fijian Drua -7.73 -9.21 1.50
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 15 – 38 -15.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 31 – 0 6.50 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 46 – 7 11.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 37 – 15 -17.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 Crusaders 22.10
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 Chiefs -10.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 Fijian Drua 9.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 Hurricanes -2.00
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 Highlanders 10.90
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 Blues -7.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.94 1.00 8.90
Saracens 8.87 6.82 2.10
Northampton Saints 4.76 2.66 2.10
Bath 3.70 -1.26 5.00
Leicester Tigers 2.58 6.13 -3.50
Sale Sharks 1.58 6.46 -4.90
Harlequins 0.92 1.93 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -2.25 -0.89 -1.40
Gloucester -3.28 -1.45 -1.80
Newcastle Falcons -16.07 -10.63 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 85 – 14 24.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 14 – 26 2.60 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 40 – 17 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 46 – 24 17.30 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 37 – 31 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 Bath 0.80
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 5.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 Harlequins 2.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 Bristol -1.40
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Sale Sharks -11.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.04 14.73 -2.70
Broncos 8.82 9.07 -0.20
Storm 5.63 6.15 -0.50
Roosters 4.14 3.08 1.10
Sharks 4.04 2.94 1.10
Sea Eagles 1.50 -0.48 2.00
Warriors 0.44 -0.07 0.50
Cowboys 0.10 2.47 -2.40
Knights -0.58 1.84 -2.40
Raiders -2.35 -4.31 2.00
Dolphins -2.85 -7.09 4.20
Eels -3.52 0.14 -3.70
Rabbitohs -5.07 0.87 -5.90
Dragons -6.14 -6.93 0.80
Bulldogs -6.99 -13.35 6.40
Wests Tigers -10.51 -13.15 2.60
Titans -10.70 -7.89 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Apr 18 12 – 18 2.60 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 19 30 – 12 -2.00 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Dolphins Apr 19 16 – 44 6.40 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 20 22 – 6 26.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 30 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 20 34 – 10 12.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 21 36 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 21 42 – 6 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 Warriors 18.10
2 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -7.30
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 Storm 13.70
4 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 Sea Eagles 8.00
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 Broncos -16.30
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 27 Panthers -8.90
7 Dolphins vs. Knights Apr 28 Dolphins 0.70
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -3.40

 

AFL Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 16.35 10.50 5.90
Melbourne Demons 15.87 13.91 2.00
Brisbane Lions 13.39 17.47 -4.10
GWS Giants 12.58 12.60 -0.00
Carlton Blues 12.01 9.73 2.30
Sydney Swans 11.20 9.23 2.00
Collingwood 11.12 14.87 -3.70
Western Bulldogs 8.43 6.04 2.40
Port Adelaide Power 7.23 8.83 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 2.88 9.56 -6.70
Fremantle Dockers 1.41 0.40 1.00
St Kilda Saints -0.60 -0.63 0.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.80 -4.60 -0.20
Richmond Tigers -10.08 -6.13 -3.90
Essendon Bombers -10.54 -17.70 7.20
Hawthorn Hawks -14.46 -11.08 -3.40
North Melbourne -33.24 -25.73 -7.50
West Coast Eagles -34.58 -43.10 8.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 18 64 – 124 -2.10 TRUE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 19 75 – 78 26.30 FALSE
3 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 123 – 81 8.50 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants Apr 20 117 – 98 5.50 TRUE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Apr 20 37 – 63 10.70 FALSE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 20 105 – 68 -45.30 FALSE
7 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 21 110 – 57 20.80 TRUE
8 North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 68 – 113 -4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 Melbourne Demons -26.00
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 Collingwood -30.70
3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 GWS Giants 8.20
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power 16.80
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 Adelaide Crows -27.10
6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 Carlton Blues -4.70
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 Fremantle Dockers 2.00
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 Gold Coast Suns 38.80
9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 Sydney Swans -16.70

 

April 16, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.58 18.86 -4.30
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 12.94 9.73 3.20
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.36 0.07 1.30
Highlanders -0.13 1.17 -1.30
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 17 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 43 – 40 -12.90 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 36 – 23 1.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 47 – 31 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -15.30
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Reds 6.50
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Blues 11.00
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 Crusaders -17.80

 

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