NRL Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 13.22 | 14.73 | -1.50 |
Roosters | 8.72 | 3.08 | 5.60 |
Storm | 6.30 | 6.15 | 0.10 |
Broncos | 6.29 | 9.07 | -2.80 |
Sharks | 4.58 | 2.94 | 1.60 |
Sea Eagles | 1.87 | -0.48 | 2.40 |
Warriors | -0.43 | -0.07 | -0.40 |
Cowboys | -0.72 | 2.47 | -3.20 |
Knights | -0.92 | 1.84 | -2.80 |
Dolphins | -1.84 | -7.09 | 5.30 |
Bulldogs | -4.38 | -13.35 | 9.00 |
Raiders | -4.85 | -4.31 | -0.50 |
Eels | -6.62 | 0.14 | -6.80 |
Titans | -6.78 | -7.89 | 1.10 |
Rabbitohs | -6.91 | 0.87 | -7.80 |
Dragons | -8.66 | -6.93 | -1.70 |
Wests Tigers | -10.86 | -13.15 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | May 23 | 44 – 12 | 4.00 | TRUE |
2 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | May 24 | 42 – 28 | 13.00 | TRUE |
3 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | May 24 | 26 – 20 | -2.50 | FALSE |
4 | Raiders vs. Roosters | May 25 | 16 – 44 | -8.20 | TRUE |
5 | Sharks vs. Panthers | May 25 | 0 – 42 | -0.90 | TRUE |
6 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | May 25 | 42 – 26 | 0.90 | TRUE |
7 | Broncos vs. Titans | May 26 | 34 – 36 | 18.50 | FALSE |
8 | Warriors vs. Dolphins | May 26 | 24 – 20 | 9.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Eels vs. Sharks | May 30 | Sharks | -8.20 |
2 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | May 31 | Knights | 6.50 |
3 | Panthers vs. Dragons | Jun 01 | Panthers | 24.90 |
4 | Dolphins vs. Raiders | Jun 01 | Dolphins | 6.00 |
5 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Jun 02 | Roosters | 12.40 |