United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
Note that there is one game left to be played in Round 8, after Christmas. I will issue an update to these predictions after that game has been played.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 13.77 | 12.09 | 1.70 |
| Glasgow | 10.58 | 9.39 | 1.20 |
| Bulls | 8.19 | 8.83 | -0.60 |
| Munster | 5.20 | 9.28 | -4.10 |
| Stormers | 5.15 | 6.75 | -1.60 |
| Lions | 4.43 | 6.73 | -2.30 |
| Ulster | 1.96 | 2.52 | -0.60 |
| Edinburgh | 1.77 | 0.09 | 1.70 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | -0.41 | -2.94 | 2.50 |
| Connacht | -0.89 | -0.76 | -0.10 |
| Benetton | -2.72 | 1.02 | -3.70 |
| Ospreys | -5.00 | -2.51 | -2.50 |
| Scarlets | -5.08 | -10.65 | 5.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.52 | -2.55 | -3.00 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -12.07 | -16.17 | 4.10 |
| Dragons | -13.64 | -15.41 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 61 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormers vs. Lions | Dec 21 | 29 – 10 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Benetton vs. Zebre | Dec 22 | 11 – 10 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Dec 22 | 20 – 12 | 18.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Ulster vs. Munster | Dec 22 | 19 – 22 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Dec 22 | 20 – 17 | -7.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Scarlets | Dec 22 | 23 – 22 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Glasgow vs. Edinburgh | Dec 23 | 33 – 14 | 9.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Lions | Dec 29 | Bulls | 6.30 |
| 2 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Dec 29 | Stormers | 8.10 |
| 3 | Connacht vs. Ulster | Dec 30 | Ulster | -0.40 |
| 4 | Munster vs. Leinster | Dec 30 | Leinster | -6.10 |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow | Dec 30 | Glasgow | -6.30 |
| 6 | Zebre vs. Benetton | Dec 30 | Benetton | -6.90 |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys | Jan 02 | Cardiff Rugby | 2.00 |
| 8 | Scarlets vs. Dragons | Jan 02 | Scarlets | 11.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »