Top 14 Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.88 | 8.76 | 2.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.74 | 3.96 | 1.80 |
| Toulon | 5.69 | 5.32 | 0.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.68 | 4.85 | -1.20 |
| Racing 92 | 1.86 | 2.75 | -0.90 |
| Clermont | 1.70 | 0.41 | 1.30 |
| Montpellier | 0.71 | -0.96 | 1.70 |
| Bayonne | 0.58 | -1.69 | 2.30 |
| Stade Francais | -0.09 | 1.86 | -2.00 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.46 | -0.09 | -0.40 |
| Section Paloise | -1.07 | 1.38 | -2.50 |
| Lyon | -1.17 | -0.18 | -1.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.64 | -0.66 | -3.00 |
| Vannes | -8.67 | -10.00 | 1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 84 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 22 | 3 – 13 | 0.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Dec 22 | 21 – 17 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 22 | 24 – 7 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont | Dec 22 | 20 – 15 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Dec 22 | 56 – 25 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Bayonne | Dec 22 | 21 – 27 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 23 | 17 – 17 | -5.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 29 | Bayonne | 8.60 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon | Dec 29 | Bordeaux Begles | 7.50 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Montpellier | Dec 29 | Clermont | 7.30 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Vannes | Dec 29 | Section Paloise | 14.70 |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Dec 30 | Racing 92 | 9.60 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | Dec 30 | Stade Toulousain | 16.60 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 30 | USA Perpignan | 0.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »