Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol | 13.43 | 9.58 | 3.80 |
| Bath | 8.63 | 5.55 | 3.10 |
| Saracens | 6.19 | 9.68 | -3.50 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.59 | 7.50 | -4.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 1.21 | 3.27 | -2.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.10 | 4.73 | -3.60 |
| Gloucester | -0.89 | -9.04 | 8.10 |
| Harlequins | -1.33 | -2.73 | 1.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -2.96 | 1.23 | -4.20 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -17.22 | -19.02 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Dec 21 | 14 – 0 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Dec 22 | 24 – 54 | 0.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | Dec 22 | 15 – 40 | -17.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 22 | 28 – 10 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 23 | 39 – 24 | 8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 28 | Bristol | 18.80 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Saracens | Dec 29 | Bath | 8.90 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 29 | Northampton Saints | 26.30 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 29 | Harlequins | 4.00 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Dec 30 | Exeter Chiefs | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »