United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.61 | 12.09 | 2.50 |
| Glasgow | 9.50 | 9.39 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | 9.01 | 8.83 | 0.20 |
| Lions | 5.74 | 6.73 | -1.00 |
| Munster | 4.88 | 9.28 | -4.40 |
| Stormers | 3.84 | 6.75 | -2.90 |
| Edinburgh | 2.85 | 0.09 | 2.80 |
| Ulster | 2.28 | 2.52 | -0.20 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | -1.24 | -2.94 | 1.70 |
| Connacht | -1.72 | -0.76 | -1.00 |
| Benetton | -1.76 | 1.02 | -2.80 |
| Ospreys | -4.78 | -2.51 | -2.30 |
| Scarlets | -5.30 | -10.65 | 5.30 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.52 | -2.55 | -3.00 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -13.03 | -16.17 | 3.10 |
| Dragons | -13.64 | -15.41 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Scarlets | Nov 30 | 17 – 15 | 23.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Leinster | Nov 30 | 20 – 27 | -10.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Dec 01 | 21 – 15 | -4.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons | Dec 01 | 31 – 23 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Bulls | Dec 01 | 14 – 28 | -3.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Edinburgh vs. Benetton | Dec 01 | 50 – 33 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Munster vs. Lions | Dec 01 | 17 – 10 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Ospreys | Dec 01 | 22 – 17 | -4.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormers vs. Lions | Dec 21 | Stormers | 0.60 |
| 2 | Benetton vs. Zebre | Dec 22 | Benetton | 13.80 |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Dec 22 | Leinster | 18.80 |
| 4 | Ulster vs. Munster | Dec 22 | Munster | -0.10 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Dec 22 | Bulls | -7.80 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Scarlets | Dec 22 | Ospreys | 3.00 |
| 7 | Glasgow vs. Edinburgh | Dec 23 | Glasgow | 9.10 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby | Dec 27 | Cardiff Rugby | -5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »