Top 14 Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.20 | 8.76 | 2.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.39 | 3.96 | 1.40 |
| Toulon | 4.96 | 5.32 | -0.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.91 | 4.85 | -0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 1.84 | 2.75 | -0.90 |
| Clermont | 1.45 | 0.41 | 1.00 |
| Montpellier | 0.70 | -0.96 | 1.70 |
| Bayonne | 0.34 | -1.69 | 2.00 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.06 | -0.09 | 0.00 |
| Section Paloise | -0.33 | 1.38 | -1.70 |
| Stade Francais | -0.41 | 1.86 | -2.30 |
| Lyon | -1.43 | -0.18 | -1.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.32 | -0.66 | -2.70 |
| Vannes | -8.52 | -10.00 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 77 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Dec 01 | 9 – 6 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 01 | 54 – 10 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 01 | 17 – 21 | -1.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon | Dec 01 | 29 – 15 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes | Dec 01 | 14 – 23 | 20.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Dec 01 | 13 – 22 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Dec 02 | 21 – 13 | 7.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 22 | Castres Olympique | 0.10 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Dec 22 | Montpellier | 4.20 |
| 3 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 22 | Stade Francais | 8.90 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont | Dec 22 | Stade Rochelais | 9.50 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Dec 22 | Toulon | 10.20 |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Bayonne | Dec 22 | Bayonne | -2.40 |
| 7 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 23 | Stade Toulousain | -5.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »