Posts from November 2024 (2)

November 25, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.05 8.76 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.76 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 4.93 4.85 0.10
Toulon 4.58 5.32 -0.70
Racing 92 2.00 2.75 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.25 -0.09 1.30
Bayonne 0.30 -1.69 2.00
Montpellier 0.28 -0.96 1.20
Clermont 0.18 0.41 -0.20
Stade Francais -0.33 1.86 -2.20
Section Paloise -0.71 1.38 -2.10
Lyon -1.10 -0.18 -0.90
USA Perpignan -2.95 -0.66 -2.30
Vannes -9.50 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 24 28 – 24 2.30 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 24 22 – 30 6.70 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Nov 24 30 – 3 5.80 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 24 40 – 24 3.10 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 25 41 – 9 19.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Nov 24 39 – 19 9.90 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 24 29 – 37 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 01 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Dec 01 Clermont 5.00
3 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 01 Stade Toulousain -1.30
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Dec 01 Section Paloise 7.40
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes Dec 01 Stade Rochelais 20.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Dec 01 USA Perpignan 0.20
7 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 02 Bayonne 7.50

 

November 4, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.58 8.76 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.82 3.96 1.90
Stade Rochelais 5.02 4.85 0.20
Toulon 4.10 5.32 -1.20
Racing 92 2.52 2.75 -0.20
Castres Olympique 1.15 -0.09 1.20
Bayonne 0.73 -1.69 2.40
Section Paloise 0.05 1.38 -1.30
Montpellier -0.48 -0.96 0.50
Clermont -0.49 0.41 -0.90
Lyon -0.51 -0.18 -0.30
Stade Francais -0.86 1.86 -2.70
USA Perpignan -2.43 -0.66 -1.80
Vannes -9.48 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Nov 03 30 – 26 7.90 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 04 12 – 8 -3.80 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 04 32 – 27 -1.20 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Nov 04 23 – 33 5.50 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Nov 04 35 – 18 10.80 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 04 21 – 10 11.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Nov 04 32 – 13 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 24 Castres Olympique 2.30
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 24 Lyon 6.70
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Nov 24 Montpellier 5.80
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 24 Stade Francais 3.10
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 25 Stade Toulousain 19.40
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Nov 24 Toulon 9.90
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 24 Bordeaux Begles -8.80