November 4, 2024
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.58 | 8.76 | 1.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.82 | 3.96 | 1.90 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.02 | 4.85 | 0.20 |
| Toulon | 4.10 | 5.32 | -1.20 |
| Racing 92 | 2.52 | 2.75 | -0.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.15 | -0.09 | 1.20 |
| Bayonne | 0.73 | -1.69 | 2.40 |
| Section Paloise | 0.05 | 1.38 | -1.30 |
| Montpellier | -0.48 | -0.96 | 0.50 |
| Clermont | -0.49 | 0.41 | -0.90 |
| Lyon | -0.51 | -0.18 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | -0.86 | 1.86 | -2.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.43 | -0.66 | -1.80 |
| Vannes | -9.48 | -10.00 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Nov 03 | 30 – 26 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 04 | 12 – 8 | -3.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 04 | 32 – 27 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Nov 04 | 23 – 33 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais | Nov 04 | 35 – 18 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Lyon | Nov 04 | 21 – 10 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Vannes | Nov 04 | 32 – 13 | 12.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 24 | Castres Olympique | 2.30 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Nov 24 | Lyon | 6.70 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Nov 24 | Montpellier | 5.80 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Nov 24 | Stade Francais | 3.10 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 25 | Stade Toulousain | 19.40 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Bayonne | Nov 24 | Toulon | 9.90 |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 24 | Bordeaux Begles | -8.80 |