Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.94 | 8.76 | 2.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 6.14 | 3.96 | 2.20 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.69 | 4.85 | -0.20 |
| Toulon | 4.10 | 5.32 | -1.20 |
| Racing 92 | 1.91 | 2.75 | -0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.39 | -0.09 | 1.50 |
| Section Paloise | 0.65 | 1.38 | -0.70 |
| Bayonne | 0.38 | -1.69 | 2.10 |
| Stade Francais | -0.49 | 1.86 | -2.40 |
| Lyon | -0.54 | -0.18 | -0.40 |
| Montpellier | -0.70 | -0.96 | 0.30 |
| Clermont | -0.83 | 0.41 | -1.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.79 | -0.66 | -2.10 |
| Vannes | -9.12 | -10.00 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise | Oct 27 | 19 – 6 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Bayonne | Oct 27 | 38 – 49 | 6.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 27 | 16 – 0 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 27 | 30 – 23 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Clermont | Oct 27 | 36 – 6 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Vannes vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 27 | 34 – 28 | -3.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon | Oct 28 | 57 – 5 | 10.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 02 | Stade Toulousain | -3.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Nov 02 | Castres Olympique | 7.90 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 02 | Bordeaux Begles | -1.20 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Nov 02 | Section Paloise | 5.50 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais | Nov 02 | Stade Rochelais | 10.80 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Lyon | Nov 02 | Toulon | 11.10 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Vannes | Nov 02 | USA Perpignan | 12.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »