United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.50 | 12.09 | 2.40 |
| Glasgow | 10.07 | 9.39 | 0.70 |
| Bulls | 7.25 | 8.83 | -1.60 |
| Lions | 6.58 | 6.73 | -0.10 |
| Munster | 6.01 | 9.28 | -3.30 |
| Stormers | 5.53 | 6.75 | -1.20 |
| Edinburgh | 2.71 | 0.09 | 2.60 |
| Ulster | 2.38 | 2.52 | -0.10 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Benetton | -1.00 | 1.02 | -2.00 |
| Connacht | -1.68 | -0.76 | -0.90 |
| Sharks | -3.49 | -2.94 | -0.50 |
| Ospreys | -4.51 | -2.51 | -2.00 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.65 | -2.55 | -3.10 |
| Scarlets | -6.44 | -10.65 | 4.20 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Dragons | -13.25 | -15.41 | 2.20 |
| Zebre | -13.29 | -16.17 | 2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarlets vs. Bulls | Oct 19 | 23 – 2 | -12.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Ospreys | Oct 19 | 36 – 12 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Lions | Oct 19 | 9 – 10 | -16.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Glasgow | Oct 19 | 28 – 24 | -10.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Munster | Oct 20 | 34 – 19 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby | Oct 20 | 27 – 8 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Leinster | Oct 20 | 12 – 33 | -11.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Benetton | Oct 20 | 21 – 31 | -5.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Bulls | Oct 26 | Bulls | -2.80 |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Zebre | Oct 26 | Scarlets | 12.40 |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Glasgow | Oct 27 | Stormers | 1.00 |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Edinburgh | Oct 27 | Edinburgh | -1.70 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Munster | Oct 27 | Munster | -4.00 |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Lions | Oct 27 | Leinster | 13.40 |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster | Oct 27 | Ulster | -2.50 |
| 8 | Connacht vs. Dragons | Oct 27 | Connacht | 17.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi. Will you be doing any of your awesome predictions for the upcoming internationals? Many thanks.
2 months ago
Unfortunately no. The main problem is obtaining a complete set of results for international games. I do this for the World Cup and it can be a day’s work. Checking where games have been played is particularly time consuming but necessary for home ground advantage. In the past I was able to collect results easily but recently had to resort to amateur sites where entries were quite error prone. (How do you spell Tbilisi? Tiblisi, Tiblissi, Tbilissi, …)
It is not so bad for tier one nations games but I don’t want to spend the time on these internationals.
2 months ago