Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 9.64 | 9.68 | -0.00 |
| Bath | 8.26 | 5.55 | 2.70 |
| Bristol | 8.04 | 9.58 | -1.50 |
| Northampton Saints | 5.53 | 7.50 | -2.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.20 | 3.27 | 0.90 |
| Sale Sharks | -0.07 | 4.73 | -4.80 |
| Harlequins | -0.23 | -2.73 | 2.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -1.34 | 1.23 | -2.60 |
| Gloucester | -5.15 | -9.04 | 3.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -18.14 | -19.02 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 25 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 19 | 24 – 18 | -14.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 19 | 47 – 17 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bristol vs. Saracens | Oct 20 | 35 – 37 | 6.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Oct 20 | 24 – 26 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Oct 21 | 29 – 26 | 19.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 26 | Bristol | 9.00 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 27 | Gloucester | 19.50 |
| 3 | Bath vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 27 | Bath | 14.80 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 27 | Saracens | 11.90 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Oct 28 | Exeter Chiefs | 5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »