Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.22 | 8.76 | 0.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 6.41 | 3.96 | 2.50 |
| Toulon | 5.41 | 5.32 | 0.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.97 | 4.85 | 0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.76 | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.22 | -0.09 | 1.30 |
| Section Paloise | 1.00 | 1.38 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | 0.07 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| Clermont | -0.28 | 0.41 | -0.70 |
| Stade Francais | -0.80 | 1.86 | -2.70 |
| Bayonne | -0.88 | -1.69 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | -1.20 | -0.96 | -0.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.99 | -0.66 | -2.30 |
| Vannes | -9.19 | -10.00 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 12 | 37 – 7 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 12 | 66 – 12 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Oct 12 | 35 – 3 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Vannes | Oct 12 | 26 – 24 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | Oct 12 | 22 – 6 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 12 | 33 – 26 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Oct 12 | 48 – 14 | 14.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Racing 92 | Oct 20 | Bayonne | 2.90 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Oct 20 | Castres Olympique | 8.50 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Vannes | Oct 20 | Clermont | 15.40 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 20 | Stade Toulousain | -1.70 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 21 | Stade Rochelais | 5.10 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Oct 20 | Toulon | 13.10 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Oct 20 | USA Perpignan | 3.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »