Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals
Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 7.73 | 10.63 | -2.90 |
| Waikato | 6.30 | 5.30 | 1.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | 6.18 | 3.52 | 2.70 |
| Canterbury | 5.91 | 6.01 | -0.10 |
| Taranaki | 5.84 | 5.21 | 0.60 |
| Tasman | 3.81 | 2.17 | 1.60 |
| North Harbour | 1.80 | 3.06 | -1.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.51 | 6.09 | -4.60 |
| Auckland | 0.39 | 3.00 | -2.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -0.70 | -5.22 | 4.50 |
| Otago | -1.51 | -3.26 | 1.70 |
| Northland | -7.36 | -4.29 | -3.10 |
| Southland | -7.76 | -10.05 | 2.30 |
| Manawatu | -18.66 | -18.73 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 74 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 11 | 29 – 14 | 10.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 12 | 19 – 17 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Oct 12 | 14 – 15 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Canterbury | Oct 13 | 14 – 62 | 6.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Semi-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Oct 19 | Bay of Plenty | 3.30 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Oct 19 | Wellington | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Thanks for the stats.
I appreciate the analysis.
What is your success rate in the finals end of the npc?
2 months ago
I haven’t ever checked the success rate for finals. However it is likely to be less than the home and away success rate. The regular season success rate is definitely boosted by the success rate of games where a highly ranked team is playing a lowly ranked team (Wellington v Manawatu, Taranaki v Southland, etc). Finals matches are typically between highly ranked teams where the expected margin is quite small, to the extent they are a bit of at toss up, with the home ground advantage (if not played on a neutral ground) being crucial.
2 months ago