October 8, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.78 12.09 0.70
Glasgow 11.26 9.39 1.90
Bulls 9.07 8.83 0.20
Lions 8.69 6.73 2.00
Munster 7.60 9.28 -1.70
Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Ulster 1.30 2.52 -1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh -0.13 0.09 -0.20
Connacht -0.59 -0.76 0.20
Sharks -2.99 -2.94 -0.00
Benetton -3.01 1.02 -4.00
Ospreys -3.13 -2.51 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -3.87 -2.55 -1.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -9.67 -10.65 1.00
Dragons -13.76 -15.41 1.60
Zebre -14.58 -16.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 36 – 52 -7.80 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 23 – 24 -4.30 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 55 – 21 11.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 47 – 21 11.10 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 5 – 35 -7.10 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 30 – 33 -5.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 23 – 0 14.30 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 5 – 36 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Oct 12 Glasgow 31.30
2 Benetton vs. Sharks Oct 13 Benetton 5.50
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Oct 13 Cardiff Rugby 8.30
4 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 13 Stormers -1.40
5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 13 Leinster 7.70
6 Ospreys vs. Bulls Oct 13 Bulls -6.70
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Oct 13 Ulster 4.40
8 Dragons vs. Lions Oct 13 Lions -16.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »