United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 11.20 | 12.09 | -0.90 |
| Glasgow | 10.36 | 9.39 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | 7.97 | 8.83 | -0.90 |
| Lions | 7.12 | 6.73 | 0.40 |
| Munster | 6.65 | 9.28 | -2.60 |
| Stormers | 5.49 | 6.75 | -1.30 |
| Ulster | 2.39 | 2.52 | -0.10 |
| Edinburgh | 1.44 | 0.09 | 1.40 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Connacht | -0.22 | -0.76 | 0.50 |
| Benetton | -1.44 | 1.02 | -2.50 |
| Ospreys | -2.18 | -2.51 | 0.30 |
| Sharks | -2.67 | -2.94 | 0.30 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -2.97 | -2.55 | -0.40 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Scarlets | -10.04 | -10.65 | 0.60 |
| Zebre | -13.31 | -16.17 | 2.90 |
| Dragons | -14.08 | -15.41 | 1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Benetton | Sep 28 | 42 – 10 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Dragons | Sep 28 | 34 – 6 | 31.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Ulster | Sep 28 | 35 – 22 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Edinburgh | Sep 29 | 22 – 16 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Zebre vs. Munster | Sep 29 | 42 – 33 | -18.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby | Sep 29 | 15 – 24 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Sharks | Sep 29 | 36 – 30 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Ospreys vs. Stormers | Sep 29 | 37 – 24 | -4.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow | Oct 05 | Glasgow | -7.80 |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Connacht | Oct 05 | Connacht | -4.30 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Edinburgh | Oct 05 | Lions | 11.20 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Ulster | Oct 06 | Bulls | 11.10 |
| 5 | Benetton vs. Leinster | Oct 06 | Leinster | -7.10 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Oct 06 | Sharks | -5.90 |
| 7 | Munster vs. Ospreys | Oct 06 | Munster | 14.30 |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Stormers | Oct 06 | Stormers | -13.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »