Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 10.02 | 9.68 | 0.30 |
| Bath | 8.12 | 5.55 | 2.60 |
| Bristol | 6.70 | 9.58 | -2.90 |
| Northampton Saints | 5.17 | 7.50 | -2.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.20 | 3.27 | -0.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.77 | 4.73 | -2.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 1.06 | 1.23 | -0.20 |
| Harlequins | -2.43 | -2.73 | 0.30 |
| Gloucester | -5.95 | -9.04 | 3.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -17.91 | -19.02 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | Sep 28 | 41 – 44 | 24.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Sep 29 | 28 – 14 | 24.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | Sep 29 | 45 – 26 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 29 | 30 – 24 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Sep 30 | 15 – 20 | 3.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Oct 05 | Northampton Saints | 14.10 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Oct 05 | Sale Sharks | 15.20 |
| 3 | Bath vs. Bristol | Oct 06 | Bath | 7.90 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 06 | Leicester Tigers | -14.60 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 07 | Saracens | 15.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »