Posts from October 2024 (4)

October 1, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.20 12.09 -0.90
Glasgow 10.36 9.39 1.00
Bulls 7.97 8.83 -0.90
Lions 7.12 6.73 0.40
Munster 6.65 9.28 -2.60
Stormers 5.49 6.75 -1.30
Ulster 2.39 2.52 -0.10
Edinburgh 1.44 0.09 1.40
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Connacht -0.22 -0.76 0.50
Benetton -1.44 1.02 -2.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Sharks -2.67 -2.94 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.97 -2.55 -0.40
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -10.04 -10.65 0.60
Zebre -13.31 -16.17 2.90
Dragons -14.08 -15.41 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Sep 28 42 – 10 14.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Sep 28 34 – 6 31.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Ulster Sep 28 35 – 22 9.40 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 29 22 – 16 13.70 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Munster Sep 29 42 – 33 -18.10 FALSE
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 29 15 – 24 -3.30 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Sep 29 36 – 30 8.50 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Stormers Sep 29 37 – 24 -4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 Glasgow -7.80
2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 Connacht -4.30
3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 Lions 11.20
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 Bulls 11.10
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 Leinster -7.10
6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 Sharks -5.90
7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 Munster 14.30
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 Stormers -13.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.86 8.76 0.10
Toulon 5.95 5.32 0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.75 4.85 0.90
Bordeaux Begles 5.48 3.96 1.50
Racing 92 2.38 2.75 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.88 -0.09 1.00
Section Paloise 0.75 1.38 -0.60
Clermont 0.47 0.41 0.10
Stade Francais 0.07 1.86 -1.80
Lyon -0.54 -0.18 -0.40
Montpellier -0.54 -0.96 0.40
USA Perpignan -1.38 -0.66 -0.70
Bayonne -2.49 -1.69 -0.80
Vannes -9.91 -10.00 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 33 – 3 2.70 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 28 – 27 5.00 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 40 – 38 5.50 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 16 – 17 3.70 FALSE
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 54 – 19 21.20 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 30 – 16 6.50 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 12 – 16 11.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Vannes vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 Racing 92 -5.80
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 06 Bordeaux Begles 14.50
3 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 06 Stade Francais 7.10
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Oct 06 Stade Rochelais 12.80
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 06 USA Perpignan 4.40
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 06 Stade Toulousain -1.50
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 07 Clermont 1.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.02 9.68 0.30
Bath 8.12 5.55 2.60
Bristol 6.70 9.58 -2.90
Northampton Saints 5.17 7.50 -2.30
Leicester Tigers 3.20 3.27 -0.10
Sale Sharks 2.77 4.73 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 1.06 1.23 -0.20
Harlequins -2.43 -2.73 0.30
Gloucester -5.95 -9.04 3.10
Newcastle Falcons -17.91 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 41 – 44 24.70 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 45 – 26 12.40 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 30 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 15 – 20 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Northampton Saints 14.10
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 Sale Sharks 15.20
3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 Bath 7.90
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 Leicester Tigers -14.60
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 Saracens 15.50

 

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.87 6.15 6.70
Panthers 9.30 14.73 -5.40
Roosters 6.65 3.08 3.60
Sharks 5.06 2.94 2.10
Cowboys 4.66 2.47 2.20
Sea Eagles 2.60 -0.48 3.10
Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60
Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90
Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60
Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70
Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90
Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70
Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90
Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60
Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Sep 28 26 – 6 2.10 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 27 48 – 18 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 06 Panthers 0.80

 

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