Posts from September 2024 (23)

September 6, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 27

By

Team Ratings for Round 27

My apologies for missing the first game this week—I am travelling in Europe and have had little opportunity to work on the predictions in time.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.38 6.15 2.20
Roosters 8.29 3.08 5.20
Panthers 7.93 14.73 -6.80
Sharks 5.81 2.94 2.90
Sea Eagles 4.96 -0.48 5.40
Cowboys 2.36 2.47 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.63 -13.35 15.00
Knights -1.08 1.84 -2.90
Broncos -1.72 9.07 -10.80
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -2.94 -7.09 4.20
Eels -5.32 0.14 -5.50
Raiders -5.57 -4.31 -1.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.93 1.20
Rabbitohs -6.03 0.87 -6.90
Titans -8.05 -7.89 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 38 – 30 -4.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 22 – 34 1.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 34 – 12 16.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 44 – 40 3.30 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 40 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 28 – 30 18.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 36 – 14 8.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 12 – 14 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 Storm -7.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 Eels -3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 Roosters -11.30
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 Dragons 2.80
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 Bulldogs 2.30
6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 Panthers 19.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 Sea Eagles 2.10
8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 Knights 4.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

By

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 10.63 1.50
Waikato 6.28 5.30 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.35 6.09 -0.70
Canterbury 4.52 6.01 -1.50
Taranaki 4.31 5.21 -0.90
Tasman 3.35 2.17 1.20
Bay of Plenty 2.35 3.52 -1.20
Auckland 2.09 3.00 -0.90
North Harbour 2.06 3.06 -1.00
Otago -2.36 -3.26 0.90
Counties Manukau -4.21 -5.22 1.00
Northland -5.33 -4.29 -1.00
Southland -9.07 -10.05 1.00
Manawatu -17.98 -18.73 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 26 – 31 8.80 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 33 – 36 11.30 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 22 – 18 11.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 39 – 21 5.30 TRUE
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 34 – 15 1.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 21 – 46 -1.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 26 – 38 -21.80 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 34 – 19 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Bay of Plenty 23.30
2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 Wellington 24.20
3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Auckland 3.00
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 Canterbury -3.90
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 Taranaki 1.00
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 Counties Manukau 4.10
8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 Wellington -11.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.66 -4.44 14.10
Bulls 5.81 -0.48 6.30
Sharks 5.78 0.96 4.80
Cheetahs 1.82 6.37 -4.60
Western Province -1.27 0.59 -1.90
Pumas -1.84 4.30 -6.10
Griquas -3.52 -2.59 -0.90
Griffons -26.44 -14.70 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 44 – 31 -5.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 33 – 57 4.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 75 – 19 31.40 TRUE
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 39 – 30 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 Griquas 1.20
2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 Lions 39.60
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 Cheetahs -0.20
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 Sharks 3.50

 

« Later posts