Top 14 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.46 | 8.76 | 0.70 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.46 | 4.85 | 0.60 |
| Toulon | 5.39 | 5.32 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.88 | 3.96 | 0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 2.67 | 2.75 | -0.10 |
| Clermont | 1.47 | 0.41 | 1.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.67 | -0.09 | 0.80 |
| Section Paloise | 0.42 | 1.38 | -1.00 |
| Stade Francais | 0.40 | 1.86 | -1.50 |
| Lyon | -0.34 | -0.18 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | -0.78 | -0.96 | 0.20 |
| Bayonne | -2.25 | -1.69 | -0.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.37 | -0.66 | -1.70 |
| Vannes | -9.36 | -10.00 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Sep 21 | 11 – 20 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | Sep 22 | 27 – 12 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Sep 22 | 26 – 10 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise | Sep 22 | 49 – 25 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Vannes vs. Lyon | Sep 22 | 30 – 20 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Sep 22 | 52 – 34 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Toulon | Sep 23 | 10 – 14 | 2.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | Sep 28 | USA Perpignan | 2.70 |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Montpellier | Sep 29 | Bayonne | 5.00 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Sep 29 | Lyon | 5.50 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais | Sep 29 | Racing 92 | 3.70 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Vannes | Sep 29 | Toulon | 21.20 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Sep 29 | Section Paloise | 6.50 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sep 30 | Stade Toulousain | 11.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »