September 23, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.47 9.58 -0.10
Saracens 9.36 9.68 -0.30
Bath 7.30 5.55 1.70
Northampton Saints 5.75 7.50 -1.70
Leicester Tigers 4.02 3.27 0.70
Sale Sharks 3.43 4.73 -1.30
Exeter Chiefs 0.48 1.23 -0.70
Harlequins -1.43 -2.73 1.30
Gloucester -8.72 -9.04 0.30
Newcastle Falcons -18.91 -19.02 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Sep 21 38 – 16 4.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Sep 21 3 – 24 -22.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 22 14 – 17 4.50 FALSE
4 Gloucester vs. Saracens Sep 22 26 – 35 -12.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Sep 23 12 – 11 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 Bristol 24.70
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 Harlequins 24.00
3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 Saracens 12.40
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 Northampton Saints 11.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 Leicester Tigers 3.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »