Top 14 Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.29 | 8.76 | 0.50 |
| Toulon | 5.01 | 5.32 | -0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.73 | 4.85 | -0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.45 | 3.96 | 0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 0.30 |
| Clermont | 1.08 | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| Section Paloise | 0.97 | 1.38 | -0.40 |
| Stade Francais | 0.77 | 1.86 | -1.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.30 | -0.09 | 0.40 |
| Lyon | 0.22 | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| Montpellier | -0.42 | -0.96 | 0.50 |
| Bayonne | -1.85 | -1.69 | -0.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.00 | -0.66 | -1.30 |
| Vannes | -9.91 | -10.00 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Sep 14 | 30 – 28 | 12.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Sep 15 | 33 – 20 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Bayonne | Sep 15 | 51 – 29 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Vannes | Sep 15 | 34 – 31 | 18.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Sep 15 | 7 – 26 | 6.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sep 15 | 28 – 26 | 2.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Sep 21 | Stade Toulousain | -3.20 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | Sep 22 | Castres Olympique | 8.80 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Sep 22 | Clermont | 9.40 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise | Sep 22 | Stade Rochelais | 10.30 |
| 5 | Vannes vs. Lyon | Sep 22 | Lyon | -3.60 |
| 6 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Sep 22 | Bordeaux Begles | 7.90 |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Toulon | Sep 23 | Stade Francais | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »