AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Final
Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 19.68 | -11.08 | 30.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.35 | 17.47 | 0.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 17.88 | 6.04 | 11.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 15.39 | 9.23 | 6.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 15.36 | 10.50 | 4.90 |
| GWS Giants | 10.13 | 12.60 | -2.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 9.53 | 8.83 | 0.70 |
| Collingwood | 6.73 | 14.87 | -8.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.35 | 0.40 | 5.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 5.11 | 9.73 | -4.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.14 | 9.56 | -6.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.12 | 13.91 | -12.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.29 | -0.63 | 0.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -6.56 | -4.60 | -2.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -10.33 | -17.70 | 7.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.43 | -6.13 | -25.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.56 | -43.10 | 6.50 |
| North Melbourne | -39.02 | -25.73 | -13.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 213 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sep 13 | 75 – 72 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | Sep 14 | 100 – 105 | 2.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Preliminary Finals
Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Sep 20 | Sydney Swans | 14.90 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Sep 21 | Brisbane Lions | -3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »