AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2
Team Ratings for Finals Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.27 | -11.08 | 31.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 17.88 | 6.04 | 11.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.54 | 17.47 | 0.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 15.39 | 9.23 | 6.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 15.36 | 10.50 | 4.90 |
| GWS Giants | 10.95 | 12.60 | -1.70 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.94 | 8.83 | 0.10 |
| Collingwood | 6.73 | 14.87 | -8.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.35 | 0.40 | 5.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 5.11 | 9.73 | -4.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.14 | 9.56 | -6.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.12 | 13.91 | -12.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.29 | -0.63 | 0.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -6.56 | -4.60 | -2.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -10.33 | -17.70 | 7.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.43 | -6.13 | -25.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.56 | -43.10 | 6.50 |
| North Melbourne | -39.02 | -25.73 | -13.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 211 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | Sep 05 | 54 – 138 | 13.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sep 06 | 62 – 99 | -7.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | Sep 07 | 88 – 82 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | Sep 07 | 99 – 71 | 19.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 2
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sep 13 | Hawthorn Hawks | -2.30 |
| 2 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | Sep 14 | GWS Giants | 2.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »